IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coconut (Copra) Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.
Coconut oil prices will grow moderately this year, following the fundamental trend relevant to all vegetable oils. The average annual coconut oil price is set to grow by 2.3% y-o-y to $1,674 per tonne in 2022 due to limited supply and rising logistic costs.
The average annual coconut oil price is forecast to rise by 2.3% y-o-y to $1,674 per tonne in 2022 (IndexBox calculates based on World Bank’s data). In 2021, the average annual coconut oil price soared by 62% y-o-y to $1,636 per tonne. Limited supply and high freight rates were the main drivers of that increase. Rising prices for other vegetable oils that follow the same fundamental trend also contribute to the price growth of coconut oil.
According to IndexBox estimates based on USDA data, global coconut oil production declined approximately by -0.6% y-o-y to 3.5M tonnes in 2021 owing to unfavourable weather and Covid-related labour shortages in Malaysia and Argentina. At the same time, the demand for coconut oil remained strong, which shattered the market balance and propelled prices.
Global Coconut Oil Imports
In 2020, global imports of coconut oil rose slightly to 2.2M tonnes, surging by 2.1% on the previous year. In value terms, supplies rose sharply to $2.5B (IndexBox estimates).
The U.S. (454K tonnes), the Netherlands (336K tonnes), Malaysia (240K tonnes), China (163K tonnes) and Germany (158K tonnes) represented roughly 62% of global coconut oil imports. Italy (85K tonnes), Sri Lanka (73K tonnes), France (62K tonnes), South Korea (48K tonnes), Belgium (42K tonnes), Spain (42K tonnes), Indonesia (41K tonnes) and Japan (37K tonnes) took a relatively small share of total volume.
In value terms, the largest coconut oil importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($565M), the Netherlands ($296M) and Malaysia ($217M), with a combined 43% share of global international purchases. These countries were followed by Germany, China, Sri Lanka, Italy, France, Belgium, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Spain, which together accounted for a further 32%.
Top Largest Coconut Oil Suppliers Worldwide
In 2020, the Philippines (627K tonnes) and Indonesia (578K tonnes) were the key exporters of coconut oil, together amounting to near 65% of global exports. The Netherlands (220K tonnes) occupied a 12% share (based on tonnes) of total supplies, which put it in secon place, followed by Malaysia (11%). Papua New Guinea (32K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.
In value terms, the Philippines ($774M), Indonesia ($546M) and the Netherlands ($268M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, together accounting for 70% of global exports. Malaysia and Papua New Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 11%.
February 9th, 2022